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 Most Number of People Living in the Top 100, List at 1 Time
Futurist
Posted: Aug 15 2012, 04:23 AM


Methuselah


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Joined: 6-September 11



QUOTE (fbarioli @ Aug 15 2012, 02:49 AM)
QUOTE (schumaker @ Aug 12 2012, 05:51 PM)
QUOTE (georg fuerholzer @ May 5 2012, 02:06 PM)
My expectation is that some time in the future we will have a period of 30-90 days without any living top 100 members, when the minimum age without disputed cases has reached +114.6 years!

My expectation (when I'm in an optimistic mood) is that thanks to life extension technology, in the future we will have a period when all or most of the people in the top 100 list are still living because they've all received therapy that allows them to live past 122. Someday there might have to be two top-100 lists: a historical, "natural aging" list with Jeanne Calment at or near the top, and a modern list of super-agers who have received gene therapy or whatever.

But until/unless that happens, I agree that it's going to get harder and harder for a living person to get onto even the lowest reaches of the top 100 list. I don't think we'll see no living members on the list until #100 is at least 115 years old, though.

You see: suppose the life expectancy increases suddenly by one year. The result is that the number of living 114ers doubles. So we would have (only) about 10 living SCs in the top-10. To have most of the top 100 made of living SC, the life expectancy should increase by 3-4 years in a very short amount of time, which is irrealistic.

Unless a cure to amyloidosis or aging is found and becomes quickly available to everyone.
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fbarioli
Posted: Aug 16 2012, 12:18 PM


math&stat


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QUOTE (Futurist @ Aug 15 2012, 04:23 AM)
Unless a cure to amyloidosis or aging is found and becomes quickly available to everyone.

That's exactly what I meant by "irrealistic" ;-)
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Futurist
Posted: Aug 16 2012, 02:35 PM


Methuselah


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Posts: 8,057
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Joined: 6-September 11



QUOTE (fbarioli @ Aug 16 2012, 12:18 PM)
QUOTE (Futurist @ Aug 15 2012, 04:23 AM)
Unless a cure to amyloidosis or aging is found and becomes quickly available to everyone.

That's exactly what I meant by "irrealistic" ;-)

I don't think that a cure to amyloidosis within the next 50-75 years is that unrealistic, though. A cure to aging, on the other hand, is a completely different matter.
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fbarioli
Posted: Aug 17 2012, 09:53 AM


math&stat


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Member No.: 1,076
Joined: 5-February 11



QUOTE (Futurist @ Aug 16 2012, 02:35 PM)
QUOTE (fbarioli @ Aug 16 2012, 12:18 PM)
QUOTE (Futurist @ Aug 15 2012, 04:23 AM)
Unless a cure to amyloidosis or aging is found and becomes quickly available to everyone.

That's exactly what I meant by "irrealistic" ;-)

I don't think that a cure to amyloidosis within the next 50-75 years is that unrealistic, though. A cure to aging, on the other hand, is a completely different matter.

Actually, I am not saying that a cure is so impossible in the next 50-75 years. What I am saying is that, when (if) a cure is found, it will not be applied to all living SCs so quickly to make living SCs take over the top-100-ever list. If the process takes, say, 10 years, you will probably see at your best 15 living in the top-100.

The fact is that, with 15 living in the top-100, the cut-off age to enter such a list will probably increase faster than the life-span increase.
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Genoa76
Posted: Sep 4 2012, 05:14 AM


Italian Supercentenarian


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Excluding disputed cases now we have 7 living SC in the Top 100:
Mrs. Cooper, Mrs. Guerri, Mr. Kimura, Mrs. Okawa, Mrs. Nakamura, Mrs. Rearden and Mrs. Ono.
(We hope Mrs. Nakamura and and Mrs. Ono are alive unsure.gif )
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Genoa76
Posted: Sep 13 2012, 08:52 AM


Italian Supercentenarian


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Joined: 28-October 10



Update: today we have 6 living SC in the Top 100:
Mrs. Cooper, Mrs. Guerri, Mr. Kimura, Mrs. Okawa, Mrs. Rearden and Mrs. Ono.
(we hope Mrs. Ono is alive)
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Daniel
Posted: Sep 13 2012, 12:14 PM


Jeanne Calment


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QUOTE (Genoa76 @ Sep 4 2012, 05:14 AM)
Excluding disputed cases now we have 7 living SC in the Top 100:
Mrs. Cooper, Mrs. Guerri, Mr. Kimura, Mrs. Okawa, Mrs. Nakamura, Mrs. Rearden and Mrs. Ono.
(We hope Mrs. Nakamura and and Mrs. Ono are alive unsure.gif )

Does this mean that Misawo Okawa is alive?
Top
Futurist
Posted: Sep 13 2012, 02:43 PM


Methuselah


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Posts: 8,057
Member No.: 1,176
Joined: 6-September 11



QUOTE (Daniel @ Sep 13 2012, 12:14 PM)
QUOTE (Genoa76 @ Sep 4 2012, 05:14 AM)
Excluding disputed cases now we have 7 living SC in the Top 100:
Mrs. Cooper, Mrs. Guerri, Mr. Kimura, Mrs. Okawa, Mrs. Nakamura, Mrs. Rearden and Mrs. Ono.
(We hope Mrs. Nakamura and and Mrs. Ono are alive  unsure.gif )

Does this mean that Misawo Okawa is alive?

I think that either Okawa or the 1897 Japanese mystery woman is still alive, but I'm not sure if they know which one yet.
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clark kent
Posted: Sep 14 2012, 10:12 AM


Methuselah


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Posts: 5,600
Member No.: 16
Joined: 22-October 07



QUOTE (Futurist @ Sep 13 2012, 02:43 PM)
QUOTE (Daniel @ Sep 13 2012, 12:14 PM)
QUOTE (Genoa76 @ Sep 4 2012, 05:14 AM)
Excluding disputed cases now we have 7 living SC in the Top 100:
Mrs. Cooper, Mrs. Guerri, Mr. Kimura, Mrs. Okawa, Mrs. Nakamura, Mrs. Rearden and Mrs. Ono.
(We hope Mrs. Nakamura and and Mrs. Ono are alive  unsure.gif )

Does this mean that Misawo Okawa is alive?

I think that either Okawa or the 1897 Japanese mystery woman is still alive, but I'm not sure if they know which one yet.

Both are still alive smile.gif
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Pieter
Posted: Sep 14 2012, 01:30 PM


Jiroemon Kimura


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Now Mrs.Koto Okubo needs to included! wink.gif

She is now already on spot 35 and already have surpassed Eugénie Blanchard!! smile.gif

Lets hope Hatsue Ono doesnt end up in limbo....because then it will be 8!!
Top
Donovan
Posted: Sep 14 2012, 09:56 PM


Donovan


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Fact: Mrs Koto Okubo has already surpassed Christina Cock to become the oldest person ever to be born in December!
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clark kent
Posted: Sep 15 2012, 02:51 AM


Methuselah


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Posts: 5,600
Member No.: 16
Joined: 22-October 07



QUOTE (Pieter @ Sep 14 2012, 01:30 PM)
Now Mrs.Koto Okubo needs to included! wink.gif

She is now already on spot 35 and already have surpassed Eugénie Blanchard!! smile.gif

Lets hope Hatsue Ono doesnt end up in limbo....because then it will be 8!!

it is still 7 because of the death of Kame Nakamura
Top
Pieter
Posted: Sep 15 2012, 03:13 AM


Jiroemon Kimura


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Posts: 4,483
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Joined: 16-January 11



QUOTE (clark kent @ Sep 15 2012, 09:51 AM)
QUOTE (Pieter @ Sep 14 2012, 01:30 PM)
Now Mrs.Koto Okubo needs to included!  wink.gif

She is now already on spot 35 and already have surpassed Eugénie Blanchard!!  smile.gif

Lets hope Hatsue Ono doesnt end up in limbo....because then it will be 8!!

it is still 7 because of the death of Kame Nakamura

Yes, I have realize my mistake wink.gif
Top
clark kent
Posted: Sep 17 2012, 07:55 AM


Methuselah


Group: Trusted Members
Posts: 5,600
Member No.: 16
Joined: 22-October 07



We could have as much as 9 living SCs in the top 100 before Marie Therese Bardet's death
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Genoa76
Posted: Dec 6 2012, 06:39 AM


Italian Supercentenarian


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Posts: 4,858
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Joined: 28-October 10



Update: today we have 6 living SC in the Top 100:
Mrs. Guerri, Mr. Kimura, Mrs. Okubo, Mrs. Okawa, Mrs. Rearden and Mrs. Ono.
(RIP Mrs. Cooper)
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