Title: A time around 2050 new C/N taking over guideline?
georg fuerholzer - June 25, 2012 11:57 PM (GMT)
What are your thoughts?
Iīve got a strong feeling that (around 2030) the Italy is going to succeed the UK and France in the number of total SCīs (means the 3rd spot)
Baxi - June 26, 2012 04:17 AM (GMT)
It is unlikely to be Italy due to its relatively low population compared to the US
Maybe China one day but I think not much before 2100
Futurist - June 27, 2012 01:23 AM (GMT)
China and India will eventually overtake the U.S. but not until the late 21st century at the earliest.
Baxi - June 27, 2012 06:21 AM (GMT)
| QUOTE (Futurist @ Jun 26 2012, 08:23 PM) |
| China and India will eventually overtake the U.S. but not until the late 21st century at the earliest. |
I am not sure about India as the conditions there are quite poor in many areas and the situation may not improve - quite the reverse
Futurist - June 27, 2012 06:12 PM (GMT)
| QUOTE (Baxi @ Jun 27 2012, 01:21 AM) |
| QUOTE (Futurist @ Jun 26 2012, 08:23 PM) | | China and India will eventually overtake the U.S. but not until the late 21st century at the earliest. |
I am not sure about India as the conditions there are quite poor in many areas and the situation may not improve - quite the reverse
|
Eventually India will become wealthy and developed just like China. It's population in 2050-2100 would probably be 1.6-1.8 billion, and many Indians right now already have birth certificates.
Thus, I stand by my statement about India. Why do you think conditions there will become worse in the next several decades?
RicardoValentim114 - June 27, 2012 06:55 PM (GMT)
Well, I'm not saying this because I am Brazilian, but I believe that Brazil will stand out in the future because, for people born before 1900 is actually a complicated case, but the process of registration and documentation became more affordable in 1910 -1920, then surely there will be many SC's Brazilian born between 1910-1930. let's hope
Futurist - June 27, 2012 07:01 PM (GMT)
| QUOTE (RicardoValentim114 @ Jun 27 2012, 01:55 PM) |
| Well, I'm not saying this because I am Brazilian, but I believe that Brazil will stand out in the future because, for people born before 1900 is actually a complicated case, but the process of registration and documentation became more affordable in 1910 -1920, then surely there will be many SC's Brazilian born between 1910-1930. let's hope |
Brazil will stand out much more but Brazil's population in 2050 and 2100 will be very small compared to those of China and India.
Futurist - June 27, 2012 07:07 PM (GMT)
I just looked at the UN Population Projections for 2100:
The number of centenarians for each of these counties in 2100 is about:
China: 2.1 million
U.S.: 2.0 million
India: 1.8 million
Japan: 1.1 million
Brazil: 1.0 million
Thus, China and India will probably have 15,000-20,000 SCs each out of that centenarian population, even with 50% mortality rates. Brazil will probably have about 7,500-10,000 SCs in 2100.
