Typhoon Mirinae (Santi/23W)

[israeli]

To the Moderators: Please merge this thread with the older "Tropical Depression 23W" thread but have the title replaced by "Typhoon Mirinae (Santi/23W)". Thank you.


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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html


TYPHOON MIRINAE [PRE-SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Wed 28 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #008


MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI) rapidly intensified into a Typhoon, gaining speed as it tracks Westerly towards the Philippine Sea...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight.

*Residents and visitors along the eastern coasts of Luzon (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook remains slightly the same...expected to continue tracking Westward within the next 1-2 days, will enter PAR tonight. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning a little WSW beginning tomorrow afternoon until end of the forecast...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on early Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon (185 kph), passing more or less 300 km. North of Camarines Sur. The core shall make landfall north of Casiguran, Aurora Saturday afternoon Oct 31 and cross Southern Isabela, Quirino, Benguet, La Union and exit thru Lingayen Gulf-Cape Bolinao Area in Northern Pangasinan on Sunday morning, Nov 1st. MIRINAE will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Monday, November 02. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing north of Camarines Norte and traversing Polillo Islands and making landfall over Northern Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Zambales beginning Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning (Oct 31-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's strong circulation has become more compact...continues to improve. Its rainbands remains at sea and not yet affecting any major islands. The initial effects of the outer rainbands over Eastern Luzon can be expected beginning Friday, Oct 30. 6 to 12-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 90 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 120 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

[israeli]

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html


TYPHOON MIRINAE [PRE-SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Wed 28 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #009


Typhoon MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI) moving closer quickly to the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...wind speeds now at 140 kph...threatens Eastern Luzon.

*Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook remains the same...expected to continue tracking Westward within the next 1-2 days, will enter PAR tonight approx 8 PM. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning a little WSW beginning tomorrow evening...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on early Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon (185 kph), passing more or less 300 km. North of Camarines Sur. The core shall make landfall just north of Casiguran, Aurora Saturday afternoon Oct 31 and cross Northern Aurora, Southern Isabela, Quirino, Benguet, La Union and exit thru Lingayen Gulf-Cape Bolinao Area in Northern Pangasinan on Sunday morning, Nov 1st. MIRINAE will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Monday, November 02. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing north of Camarines Norte and traversing Polillo Islands and making landfall over Northern Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Zambales beginning Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning (Oct 31-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE continues to pick up strength along the warm waters of the Western Pacific...its circulation continues to improve, with the appearance of a small-ragged EYE. Its rainbands remains at sea and not yet affecting any major islands. The initial effects of its outer rainbands over Eastern Luzon can be expected beginning Friday, Oct 30. 6 to 12-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae.


[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

[israeli]

wwwt.typhoon2000.ph


TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Thu 29 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #012


Typhoon MIRINAE (SANTI) still on a slightly fast westerly track towards Luzon...expected to make landfall somewhere between Aurora and Northern Quezon...Full preparations must be implemented at this time.

*Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon (from Batanes down to Bicol Peninsula) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook has changed slightly to the south...expected to continue tracking on a straight Westward track within the next 24 hours. The 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Friday evening, Oct 30, passing more or less 250 km. North of Bicol Region. The core shall make landfall over Casiguran, Aurora early Saturday morning Oct 31 and cross Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, Northern Pangasinan, La Union and exit thru Lingayen Gulf-Cape Bolinao Area in Northern Pangasinan. MIRINAE will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Monday, November 02...and will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm as it approaches Central Vietnam on November 02. MIRINAE shall dissipate after making its final landfall over Vietnam on November 03. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night (Oct 28), showed the system making landfall over Northern Quezon, Rizal, Bulacan, Pampanga, and Zambales beginning Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning (Oct 31-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more and pushes MIRINAE more Southwestward. This scenario remains weak at this time. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's compact circulation has slightly expanded as it moves over a slightly warm Philippine Sea. Its EYE remains cloud-filled. The rainbands of this typhoon remains at sea and not yet affecting any major islands. The initial effects of the outer rainbands of MIRINAE over Eastern Luzon can be expected beginning Friday morning, Oct 30. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 80 mm (moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 200 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]


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http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml


Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWO
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Thursday, 29 October 2009


Typhoon "SANTI" has intensified further as it continues to move towards Central Luzon.


Location of Center: (as of 4:00 a.m.) 1,080 km East of Casiguran, Aurora

Coordinates: 16.2°N, 133.5°E

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 185 kph

Movement: West at 26 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:

Friday morning: 580 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Saturday morning: 100 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Sunday morning: 180 km West of Dagupan City


Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)

Isabela
Aurora
Northern Quezon
Polillo Islands


Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signal #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today.

[israeli]

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml


Severe Weather Bulletin Number THREE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Thursday, 29 October 2009


Typhoon "SANTI" has maintained its strength as it continues to move towards Central Luzon.


Location of Center: (as of 10:00 a.m.) 890 km East of Casiguran, Aurora

Coordinates: 16.0°N, 131.7°E

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 185 kph

Movement: West at 24 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:

Friday morning: 440 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Saturday morning: Vicinity of Casiguran, Aurora or 210 km Northeast of Manila
Sunday morning: 170 km West of Dagupan City or 280 km Northwest of Manila


Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal


Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)

Polillo Island


Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)

Isabela
Ifugao
Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Viscaya
Nueva Ecija
Bulacan
Rizal
Quezon
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur


Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signal #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.m. today.

[israeli]

Mirinae (Santi) is seemingly moving at a westerly to southwesterly direction, which means that Metro Manila and parts of Southern Tagalog are in danger of being directly hit by a Category 3 or 4 typhoon this coming weekend.

[didu]

no chance of swerving away? we are scheduled to go to manila tomoro

[israeli]

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml


Severe Weather Bulletin Number FOUR
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Thursday, 29 October 2009


Typhoon "SANTI" continued moving towards Central Luzon.


Location of Center: (as of 4:00 p.m.) 800 km East of Baler, Aurora

Coordinates: 15.8°N, 129.9°E

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 185 kph

Movement: West at 20 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:

Friday afternoon: 360 km East of Baler, Aurora
Saturday afternoon: in the vicinity of Nueva Ecija or at 90 km North of Manila
Sunday afternoon: 580 km West of Manila



Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)

Aurora
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island

Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)

Isabela
Ifugao
Quirino
Benguet
Nueva Vizcaya
Pangasinan
Tarlac
Nueva Ecija
Pampanga
Bulacan
Rizal
Rest of Quezon
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes


Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

[didu]

di na kami tutuloy punta dyan

[israeli]

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html


TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 011
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Thu 29 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #014


Typhoon MIRINAE (SANTI) continues to threaten a wide-swath of areas in Luzon with landfall projection either Aurora or Northern Quezon...now tracking Westward during the past 3 hours.

*Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon (from Cagayan down to Bicol Peninsula) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook continues to change more to south matching the ECMWF (European) guidance model...expected to cross the heart of Central Luzon. The 2 to 5-day Medium-Range Forecast now shows the system approaching the northern coast of Bicol Region tomorrow night - passing more or less 150 km. North of Naga City around 10 PM.The core (eye and eyewall) will pass over Polillo Island around 2 AM Saturday and make landfall over Northern Quezon just north of Infanta between 5-6 AM as a Category 2 typhoon w/ winds of 160 kph. It will then cross Bulacan, Pampanga around 10 AM - passing about 25 km. North of Quezon City and will be over Subic Bay/Olongapo City area at around 2 PM Saturday. MIRINAE will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Sunday, November 01 and will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm before making its final landfall over Vietnam on Monday, Nov 02. It will dissipate over Cambodia on Nov 03. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's convective circulation has slightly weakened but its wind speed remained intact. The EYE remains cloud-filled w/ its rainbands still at sea and not yet affecting parts of Eastern Luzon. The initial effects of the outer rainbands of MIRINAE over Eastern Luzon including Bicol Region can be expected beginning tomorrow morning. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 02 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Northern Visayas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

[israeli]

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tc_up.html


Severe Weather Bulletin Number FIVE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Thursday, 29 October 2009


Typhoon "SANTI" has maintained its strength as it continues to move towards Central Luzon.


Location of Center: (as of 10:00 p.m.) 660 km East of Baler, Aurora

Coordinates: 16.2°N, 128.5°E

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 185 kph

Movement: West at 22 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:

Friday evening: 180 km East of Baler, Aurora
Saturday evening: 240 km West Northwest of Manila
Sunday evening: 800 km West of Manila


Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal


Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)

Aurora
Quirino
Nueve Ecija
Bulacan
Rizal
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island


Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)

Isabela
Ifugao
Benguet
Nueva Vizcaya
La Union
Pangasinan
Tarlac
Zambales
Pampanga
Bataan
Laguna
Cavite
Batangas
Lubang Is.
rest of Quezon
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Metro Manila


Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

[israeli]

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html


TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Fri 30 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #016


Typhoon MIRINAE (SANTI) continues on its WSW track and is now moving closer to Northern Bicol and Polillo Islands.

*Residents and visitors along the Bicol Region, Eastern, Southern and Central Luzon should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE is expected to resume its Westward track and maintain its strength, passing close to the coastal areas of Northern Bicol or about 150 km. North of Naga City around 10 PM tonight. Its Core (Eye & Eyewall) will pass very close to Polillo Islands early tomorrow morning (2 AM Sat) and make landfall over Northern Quezon, just north of Infanta around 7 AM...then will cross Bulacan and Pampanga (Clark Air Base) around 8 or 9 AM or about 55 km. North of the City of Manila. Around noontime tomorrow, MIRINAE will be moving into the mountain ranges of Zambales and exit towards the South China Sea in the afternoon (Sat). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system approaching the coast of Vietnam as a downgraded Tropical Storm due to increase wind shear over the area on Nov 1 through Nov 2...and then will make landfall over Vietnam and dissipate over Cambodia on Tuesday, Nov 03. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's convective circulation has regain rain cloud convection as it moves closer to Eastern Luzon. The EYE remains cloud-filled w/ its outer rainbands now spreading across the Bicol Region. Rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected across the Bicol Region, deteriorating later today as the typhoon approaches. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 02 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Northern Visayas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]


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http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml


Severe Weather Bulletin Number SIX
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Friday, 30 October 2009


Typhoon "SANTI" continues to move closer to Aurora-Quezon area.



Location of Center: (as of 4:00 a.m.) 580 km East Northeast of Infanta, Quezon

Coordinates: 15.6°N, 127.2°E

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 185 kph

Movement: West Southwest at 22 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:

Saturday morning: 50 km East of Infanta, Quezon
Sunday morning: 370 km West of Manila
Monday morning: 840 km West of Manila


Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal


Signal No.3
(100-185 kph winds)

Polillo Islands


Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)

Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Ecija
Bulacan
Tarlac
Zambales
Pampanga
Bataan
Rizal
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Lubang Is.
Quezon
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Metro Manila


Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)

Isabela
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Benguet
La Union
Pangasinan
Albay
Burias Is.
Sorsogon
Marinduque
Oriental Mindoro
Occidental Mindoro
Calamian Group


Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.

[israeli]

the latest satellite image of Mirinae (Santi) from PAGASA:

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/sat_images/satpic.jpg

[israeli]

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml


Severe Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Friday, 30 October 2009


Typhoon "SANTI" continues to threaten Aurora-Quezon area.


Location of Center: (as of 10:00 a.m.) 350 km East Northeast of Infanta, Quezon

Coordinates: 15.2°N, 125.3°E

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 185 kph

Movement: West at 22 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:

Saturday morning: 70 kms West Northwest of Metro Manila or in the vicinity of Zambales
Sunday morning: 600 kms West of Metro Manila or over the South China Sea


Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal


Signal No.3
(100-185 kph winds)

Northern Quezon
Polillo Islands


Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)

Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Ecija
Bulacan
Tarlac
Zambales
Pampanga
Bataan
Rizal
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Lubang Is.
Rest of Quezon
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Metro Manila


Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)

Isabela
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Benguet
La Union
Pangasinan
Albay
Burias Is.
Sorsogon
Marinduque
Oriental Mindoro
Occidental Mindoro
Calamian Group


Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.

[israeli]

as posted by Sir horge on the Timawa forum:



let us all say Hi to Mirinae (Santi)!

[israeli]

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/micro.html


TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 014
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Fri 30 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX & WARNING #017


Typhoon MIRINAE (SANTI) has slightly moved again WSW...approaching the coastal areas of Northern Bicol...endangers Camarines Norte.

*Residents and visitors along the Bicol Region, Eastern, Southern and Central Luzon should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: The core (eye & eyewall) of MIRINAE is expected track more WSW within the next 12 hours, passing very close to Northern Camarines Sur...about 120 km. North of Naga City or 70 km. North of Siruma around 6 PM tonight...and passing very close to Camarines Norte - about 65 km. North of Daet around 8 PM tonight. Around midnight, the core will move across Polillo Island and make landfall over Infanta, Quezon around 2 AM tomorrow, Saturday...then traverse Central Luzon passing over Rizal-Northern Metro Manila around 3 AM...hitting Quezon City around 4 AM (about 28 km. North of Manila)...and across the Provinces of Bulacan, Southern Pampanga and Southern Zambales...passing over Subic Bay/Olongapo area between 5-9 AM tomorrow. Around noontime tomorrow, MIRINAE will be over the South China Sea. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system approaching the coast of Vietnam as a downgraded Tropical Storm due to increase wind shear over the area on Nov 1 through Nov 2...and then will make landfall over Vietnam on Monday Nov 02 and dissipate over Cambodia on Tuesday, Nov 03. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's convective circulation remains strong as it moves closer to the Coast of Northern Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. The EYE remains cloud-filled w/ inner rainbands now beginning to spread over Catanduanes...where stormy conditions not exceeding 100 kph can be expected. Its outer rainbands continues to spread across the whole Bicol Region...deteriorating across Camarines Provinces as the typhoon approaches...Strong winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected along the outer bands. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 10 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Northern Visayas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]